Deterministic and Stochastic Models of the Transmission Dynamics of Chicken Pox.
Authors
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Bright O Osu
Department of Mathematics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, Nigeria
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O Andrew
Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, P.M.B. 1526, Imo State, Nigeria.
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A I Victory
A research student; Abia State University, Uturu
Abstract
In this work a deterministic and stochastic model is developed and used to investigate the transmission dynamics of chicken pox. The models involve the Susceptible, Vaccinated, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered individuals. In the deterministic model the Disease free Equilibrium is computed and proved to be globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1. The deterministic model is transformed into a stochastic model which was solved using the Euler Maruyama method. Numerical simulations of the stochastic Model show that as the vaccine rate wanes, the number of individuals susceptible to the chicken pox epidemic increases.
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